(Kelly Kading/Courtesy)

(Kelly Kading/Courtesy)
In the last few weeks, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) revised its assessment of El Nino conditions that may affect our fall, winter, and spring weather (significantly). For those who don’t know, the “El Nino” phenomenon involves warming of near-surface ocean waters in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean. This warming occurs regularly, every few years (usually 5-10 years but sometimes longer or shorter). It is called “El Nino” because the effects often are felt beginning around Christmas (“El Nino” referencing the Christ child). The opposite effect, cooling of those waters, is called La Nina.
The “effects” are predictable, and vary depending on the strength of the temperature deflection from average. The biggest El Nino effect, which impacts us here in the desert southwest, is a shift in the subtropical atmospheric jet stream, which steers wetter systems south, to California, the southwestern deserts, and Colorado. This increase in moisture (sometimes extreme, see below) is what can bust our droughts, and has done so repeatedly throughout time. The down side is that the Pacific Northwest and northern plains states get much less moisture than normal.
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