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You know those predictions from some artificial intelligence companies that A.I. might produce Armageddon any day now?
Maybe we shouldn’t freak about them because they are a clever business ploy rather than a warning.
This reassuring possibility was one of many intriguing ideas that were floated during Tuesday’s Science Cafe in Concord, a free-wheeling discussion among some 70 people who filled Litherman’s Limited Brewery to hear about the effect A.I. is having on jobs, education and even humans’ ability to control our environment.
The two panelists, Professors Nick Smith of UNH and James Dobson of Dartmouth, both expressed what might be called a healthy skepticism about recent fears of incipient Armageddon, such as those from a couple of researchers at the A.I. firm Anthropic who said there is a 10% chance the software will destroy civilization in the next decade or so.
They have some suggestions for further reading, which are listed at the bottom of this article.
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Their caution about claims of civilization’s destruction, they said, comes from the fact that they make the A.I. firms look much more powerful and accomplished. That’s not just an ego boost for the employees but, more importantly, is a good way to lure investors, intimidate opposition and stampede lawmakers into regulating the industry in a way that locks in their front-runner advantage.
Given such an incentive to exaggerate, the panelists said, we should be suspicious of these warnings.
I can’t give you more details because I was moderating the panel rather than taking notes, carrying a microphone to get comments from the crowd that packed Litherman’s as if I was channeling Bob Barker from The Price is Right. But you can see the whole argument on Concord TV, which filmed the Science Cafe and will have the video ready next week. We’ll have links to it, as well.
I can say there was a lot during the session that wasn’t reassuring. That includes a comment from one lawyer who said A.I. made a discovery which saved his innocent client from a guilty plea, which is, for what it’s worth, a positive outcome. But he said that anybody whose occupation occurs entirely on a computer — which, come to think of it, includes me — should expect their job to be taken over by A.I. in the next five or ten years.
Is that right? Good question, which is exactly why we had a Science Cafe to discuss it.
Science Cafe was a monthly occurrence in Concord for many years until COVID ended it. The Concord Monitor will be sponsoring more of them in the future, although they won’t be monthly. A separate group runs Science Cafes most months in Nashua — you can check out their Facebook page for details.
Here are suggestions for more reading from the two professors, some of which were mentioned during the Science Cafe:
David Brooks can be reached at dbrooks@cmonitor.com. Sign up for his Granite Geek weekly email newsletter at granitegeek.org. More by David Brooks
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